Stockmarket Should Remain Strong as Long as Fed Avoids Misstep

The major U.S. stock indexes finished mixed last week with gains being posted in the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind. It was a busy week in regards to corporate earnings, Fed activity and economic data with all factoring into the price action at some time or another, however, all these news events generated very little change in prices.

美国主要股指上周涨跌互现，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数落后。对于企业收益，美联储活动和经济数据而言，这是一个繁忙的一周，所有这些因素都会影响价格行动，但是，所有这些新闻事件都导致价格变化很小。

{1}

There really wasnt much to rattle stock traders last week except for potential valuation issues. This raises the question, will U.S. investors still be willing to chase the market higher at current price levels, or will they be more willing to book some profits and wait for a pullback into a value area.

真的除了潜在的估值问题外，上周对股票交易员的喋喋不休。这提出了一个问题，美国投资者是否仍愿意以当前的价格水平追逐市场，或者他们是否愿意预订一些利润并等待回归价值区域。

Last weeks domestic economic reports were mixed, but for the most part were still positive. We saw a rise in consumer confidence and productivity. Additionally, the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate hit a nearly 50 year low. Wage growth was steady, but still disappointing to some. From a positive perspective, this indicates that the labor market can continue to support economic growth without spiking inflation higher.

上周国内经济报告喜忧参半，但大部分仍然是积极的。我们看到了消费者信心和生产力的提升。此外，美国经济在4月增加了263,000个就业岗位，失业率创下近50年来的新低。工资增长稳定，但仍然令一些人失望。从积极的角度来看，这表明劳动力市场可以继续支持经济增长而不会使通货膨胀率上升。

The U.S. Federal Reserve actually came in a bit less-dovish than expected. The big surprise to some market participants is that the central bank reduced the chances of a rate hike last year with their commentary. Central bank policymakers reiterated their patient approach to setting rates, but also signaled that due to strong labor growth, it wasnt preparing to cut interest rates. This triggered a light sell-off toward the end of week by investors who had priced in a more-dovish Fed.

美联储实际上比预期的要温和得多。一些市场参与者感到意外的是，央行去年通过评论降低了加息的可能性。央行政策制定者重申了他们耐心地设定利率的方法，但也暗示了这一点由于劳动力增长强劲，它并未准备降息。这引发了投资者在本周末的轻微抛售，这些投资者定价为更温和的美联储。

Nonetheless, stock market investors seem to like Fed policy at this time because it doesn‘t suggest a rate hike is on the horizon. Traders would rather have the central bank hold rates steady then raise them. A rate cut would’ve been the cherry on top, however.

尽管如此，股市投资者似乎也喜欢美联储的政策因为它并不意味着加息即将来临。交易者宁愿让央行维持利率不变，然后提高利率。然而，降息将成为最重要的因素。

Moving forward, the stock market should remain healthy since Fed policy is accommodating. The economy is also healthy although slow-moving. As long as inflation remains slightly under the Feds 2 percent target, the policymakers really have no choice but to watch how conditions unfold.

展望未来，自美联储政策适应以来，股市应保持健康。虽然经济发展缓慢，但经济也很健康。只要通胀仍然略低于美联储2％的目标，政策制定者就别无选择，只能观察情况如何展开。

While Fed stimulus has helped generate solid returns in the stock market, there is evidence that this bull market is now being supported by improving fundamentals. Recent data shows steady consistent growth in the economy and corporate profits. And over the last six-months weve seen what raising rates too fast can do to the stock market.

虽然美联储的刺激措施有助于股票获得稳健的回报市场，有证据表明，这个牛市现在受到基本面改善的支撑。最近的数据显示经济和企业利润稳步增长。在过去的六个月中，我们已经看到加息速度过快对股市的影响。

Furthermore, Aprils jobs report highlighted the strength in the labor force. Unemployment is low, wages are rising steadily and this is helping to boost household spending, which essentially holds together the economy.

此外，4月的就业报告突显了劳动力的强势。失业率很低，工资稳步上升，这有助于推动家庭支出，这基本上将经济结合在一起。

As earnings season comes to a close, investors will look back and see that corporate earnings results have come in ahead of expectations when less than a month ago experts were calling for the worst season in three years. This is important because even with the relatively low interest rate environment, earnings growth will continue to remain a key driver of market performance the rest of the year.

随着收益季节即将结束，投资者将回顾在不到一个月前，专家们呼吁三年来最糟糕的一个季节，企业盈利结果已经超出预期。这很重要，因为即使在相对较低的利率环境下，盈利增长仍将是今年余下时间市场表现的主要推动因素。

While we remain optimistic about future growth in the stock market, we are being realistic when we say that there are potential pitfalls out there including the possibility of a Fed misstep, political uncertainty regarding the White House and fallout from Brexit.

虽然我们对未来持乐观态度股市的增长，当我们说存在潜在的陷阱，包括美联储失误的可能性，白宫的政治不确定性以及后果英国脱欧。