Top 5 Events: Q119 Eurozone GDP and CPI & EURJPY Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The Q119 Eurozone GDP report is due on Tuesday, April 30 at 09:00 GMT while the initial April Eurozone CPI report us due on Friday, May 3 at 09:00 GMT.

- Q119欧元区GDP报告将于4月30日星期二格林尼治标准时间09:00公布，而4月初欧元区CPI报告将于5月3日星期五格林尼治标准时间09:00。

- Soft growth and inflation readings are likely to renew speculation that the European Central Bank will change its Staff Economic Projections at the June ECB meeting.

- 软增长和通胀数据可能会再次引发市场猜测欧洲央行将在6月份的欧洲央行会议上改变其员工经济预测。

- Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that EUR-crosses are on mixed footing.

- 零售交易商定位的近期变化表明，欧元区交叉点处于混合基础上。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一7点加入我：30周末格林威治标准时间/格林威治标准时间周末网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/30 TUESDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (1Q A), 05/03 FRIDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index (APR A)

04/30星期二| 09:00 GMT |欧元区国内生产总值（1季度A），05/3周五09:00 GMT |欧元区欧元区消费者物价指数（APR A）

The first look at Q1‘19 Eurozone GDP on Tuesday should see growth rates remain tepid at best, with the quarterly rate due in at 0.3% from 0.2% while the yearly rate is set to hold at 1.1%. Consistently weak growth figures should serve to underscore the European Central Bank’s Governing Councils view that risks have moved “to the downside.”

周二首次看欧元区第19季度国内生产总值的增长率应保持在最佳水平，季度利率为0.3 ％从0.2％，而年率设定为1.1％。持续疲弱的增长数据应该有助于强调欧洲央行理事会的观点，即风险已经“向下倾斜”。

After Reuters recently reported that ECB officials were concerned that the recent Staff Economic Projections were too optimistic, the Q119 Eurozone GDP report could be seen as a significant piece of evidence that will be used to justify a cut to growth forecasts at the June ECB meeting.

路透社最近报道欧洲央行官员担心近期工作人员经济预测过于乐观，Q119欧元区GDP报告可被视为一个重要证据，将用于证明6月欧洲央行会议削减增长预测的合理性。

Elsewhere, the preliminary April Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due on Friday at 1.6% from 1.4% (y/y), a sign that weakness in the Euro in recent weeks coupled with the ongoing rebound in oil prices may be helped stabilize the price outlook. The core reading is due in at 1% from 0.8% (y/y). With inflation expectations tempered – the 5y5y inflation swap forwards have barely budged in recent weeks – its doubtful that policy makers take the developments too optimistically.

其他方面，4月欧元区初步消费者物价指数周五将从1.4％（同比）下跌1.6％，表明最近几周欧元疲软以及油价持续反弹可能有助于稳定价格外表。核心读数为0.8％（y / y）的1％。随着通胀预期的缓和 - 最近几周五十五年的通胀掉期远期几乎没有变化 - 政府制定者对这些发展过于乐观，这是值得怀疑的。

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，EURJPY，EURUSD

EURJPY Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

EURJPY T.chnical Analysis：每日价格走势图（2018年1月至2019年4月）（图1）

EURJPY prices have spent most of 2019 oscillating between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of the September 2018 high to January 2019 low range, around 124.29 to 127.67. During this consolidation, prices have flirted with breaking out of the downtrend from the September 2018 and March 2019 highs, but thus far traction has failed to gather pace.

EURJPY价格在2019年大部分时间内在38.2％和61.8％之间波动2018年9月高位回落至2019年1月低位，大约在124.29至127.67之间。在这次整合期间，价格已经从2018年9月和2019年3月的高位突破了下跌趋势，但迄今为止牵引力未能加快步伐。

Instead, its possible that EURJPY price has been consolidating into a symmetrical triangle in recent months – in fact, the triangle may go back to the middle of December 2018. To this end, we note that momentum is mostly flat at present time, given that price is back to its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope while daily MACD has returned back to its signal line.

相反，它可能是近几个月欧元兑日元汇率一直在巩固成一个对称的三角形 - 实际上，这个三角形可能会回到2018年12月中旬。为此，我们注意到目前的动力基本持平，因为价格回到了它的水平。每日8,13和21-EMA信封，而每日MACD已回到信号线。

Accordingly, the EURJPY price forecast is neutral in the near-term as we await resolution of the symmetrical triangle. A break above 126.80 (April swing highs) would suggest that the odds of a topside resolution had increased significantly, whereas a break below last weeks low around 124.09 would indicate that EURJPY price was more than likely to resolve itself lower out of the symmetrical triangle.

因此，欧元兑日元的价格预测在短期内保持中性我们等待对称三角形的解决方案。突破126.80（4月摆动高点）将表明上行决议的可能性已大幅上升，而突破至上周低点124.09附近将表明欧元兑日元价格更有可能从对称三角形中走出低位。

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURJPY (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：EURJPY（2019年4月19日）（图2）

EURJPY: Retail trader data shows 58.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.4 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 13.4% higher than yesterday and 16.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 24.6% higher than yesterday and 42.8% lower from last week.

EURJPY：零售交易商数据显示，58.3％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头比空头比率为1.4比1.交易者净多头比昨天增加13.4％，比上周增加16.9％，而交易者净空头比昨天高出24.6％，比上周下降42.8％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURJPY trading bias.

我们通常采取措施对于人群情绪的看法，以及交易商净多头表明欧元兑日元价格可能继续下跌。定位比昨天减少净多头，但比上周净多头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对欧元兑日元的交易偏差进一步加剧。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写