Gold Prices at Risk with ECB Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes in Focus

GOLD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

黄金基本预测：熊势

• Gold prices mark time after second-largest weekly drop this year

  黄金价格标志着秒后的时间 - 今年每周最大跌幅

• Diverging US Dollar, bond yields make for competing influences

  美元贬值，债券收益率会产生竞争影响

• FOMC minutes, ECB policy decision might trigger risk aversion

  FOMC会议纪要，欧洲央行政策决定可能引发避险情绪

Check out the latest gold price forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

查看最新的黄金价格预测，看看预期推动价格到年中！

Gold prices spent the past six sessions locked in a narrow consolidation range, digesting after the prior weeks outsized drop. That move seemed to mark the culmination of building pressure from a recovering US Dollar and lower Treasury bond yields since mid-March. These moves sapped the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal.

过去六个交易日的黄金价格锁定在一个狭窄的盘整范围内，在前几周大幅下跌之后消化。这一举措似乎标志着自3月中旬以来美元复苏和国债收益率走低构成压力的高潮。这些举动削弱了以黄金为代表的反法定和无息资产的吸引力。

By contrast, last week‘s torpor appeared to reflect divergence in these drivers. A rebound in risk appetite capped haven-inspired demand for the Greenback and nudged it lower. Investors’ brighter disposition also translated in higher lending rates however, cutting off a pathway to the upside.

相比之下，上周的麻木似乎反映了这些驱动因素的分歧。风险偏好的反弹限制了避风港对美元的需求，并推动其走低。然而，投资者更明智的处置也转化为更高的贷款利率，从而切断了向上的道路。

Looking for a technical perspective on the gold？ Check out the Weekly Gold Technical Forecast.

寻找技术观点黄金？查看每周黄金技术预测。

FOMC MINUTES, ECB RATE DECISION MAY SPOOK THE MARKETS

FOMC分钟，欧洲央行决定可能会推动市场

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A worried tone from jittery central bankers may spur the pivot. Minutes from last months FOMC meeting – which marked a major dovish shift in the policy stance – will help illustrate what officials are afraid of. An ECB interest rate decision will almost certainly leave the current stance intact, but the occasion will give President Draghi a platform to bemoan lackluster performance and assorted downside risks.

来自紧张不安的央行行长的忧虑可能刺激了支点。上个月的FOMC会议纪要 - 这标志着政策立场的一次重大转变 - 将有助于说明官员们所担心的问题。欧洲央行的利率决定几乎肯定会使当前的立场完好无损，但这一场合将给德拉吉总统一个平台，让他们感到黯淡的表现和各种下行风险。

If downbeat rhetoric translates into risk-off trading conditions, a premium on liquidity may drive the US Dollar higher even as yields retreat. The relative magnitude of these moves will determine which one ultimately sways gold prices. Absent some “black swan” outcome, Fed and ECB policy is probably locked in through 2019. This might mean that the lead from USD takes precedence, pushing the metal downward.

如果悲观的言论转化为避险交易条件，流动性溢价可能推动美元走高，即使收益率回落。这些举措的相对幅度将决定哪一个最终会影响黄金价格。由于没有一些“黑天鹅”的结果，美联储和欧洲央行的政策可能在2019年被锁定。这可能意味着美元的领先优势，推动金价下跌。

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

- - 由DailyFX.com的高级货币策略师Ilya Spivak撰写