Gold Prices Risk Larger Rebound Amid Failed Attempts to Test 2019-Low

Gold Price Talking Points

黄金价格谈判点

The recent weakness in gold appears to be sputtering ahead of the 2019-low ($1277) as the fresh updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report highlight a slowing economy, and the precious metal may continue to benefit from the current environment as the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to abandon the hiking-cycle.

近期黄金走软似乎是在2019年低点（1277美元）之前因美国非全新农场非农就业报告强调经济放缓，贵金属可能会继续受益于当前的环境，因为美联储似乎有望放弃徒步旅行周期。

Gold attempts to retrace the decline from earlier this week even as the U.S. economy adds 196K jobs in March, with a deeper look at the report showing an unexpected decline in the participation rate, an indication that discouraged workers are leaving the labor force.

Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings narrowed to 3.2% from 3.4% per annum in February, and the batch of mixed developments may push the Federal Reserve to alter the forward-guidance as ‘data arriving since September suggest that growth is slowing somewhat more than expected.’

此外，平均每小时收益从2月份的每年3.4％缩小至3.2％，而这批混合动力的发展可能推动美联储改变前瞻性指引，因为“自9月以来的数据到来表明增长速度比预期的要慢一些。”

In turn, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes on tap for April 10 may largely highlight a wait-and-see approach as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy,’ but the central bank may come under increased pressure to insulate the economy as U.S. President Donald Trump tweets that the Federal Reserve has ‘mistakenly raised interest rates.’ With that said, Fed Fund Futures still reflect a greater than 50% probability for a rate-cut in December, and the FOMC may continue to adjust the forward-guidance over the coming months as the central bank plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) starting in May.

反过来，联邦公开市场委员会（联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）4月10日的会议纪要可能主要强调观望态度，因为主席杰罗姆鲍威尔公司承诺“耐心评估政策立场的任何变化的必要性”，但央行可能会来美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推测美联储“错误地提高了利率”，因此美联储基金期货仍然反映出12月份降息幅度超过50％，并且由于央行计划每月减少50亿美元，联邦公开市场委员会可能会继续调整未来几个月的远期指引从5月开始的定量收紧（QT）。

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

注册并加入DailyFX货币分析师David Song LIVE，有机会讨论潜在的交易设置。

Gold Price Daily Chart

Gold价格每日图表

• The opening range for April instills a constructive view for gold amid the lack of momentum to test the 2019-low ($1277), with the $1279 (38.2% retracement) still holding up as support.

  4月的开盘价在缺乏情况下为黄金提供建设性观点

• In turn, a move back above the Fibonacci overlap around $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement) brings the $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) region back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $1328 (50% expansion) to $1329 (50% expansion), which sits just above the March-high ($1324).

  反过来，回到斐波纳契重叠上方，在1298美元附近（23.6％回撤位）至1302美元（50％回撤位）带来13美元15日（23.6％回撤位）至1316美元（38.2％扩张区）重新回到原点，下一个利息区域约为1328美元（扩张50％）至1329美元（扩张50％），略高于3月高点（$ 1324）。

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

如需更深入的分析，请查看2019年第二季度黄金预测

Additional Trading Resources

其他交易资源

Are you looking to improve your trading approach？ Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

您是否希望改善交易方式？查看“成功交易者的特征”系列，了解如何有效利用杠杆以及其他最佳实践任何交易者都可以关注。

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching？ Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

想知道DailyFX团队正在观看的其他市场吗？下载并查看2019年的最佳交易机会。

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

---由货币分析师David Song撰写