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Abstract:Risk appetite kept equity well bid as a new week got under way, but theres a lot of economic news on tap, most obviously the
Asian Stocks Talking Points:
Markets were higher almost across the board, with only the Kospi lagging and that not by much
Hopes for some sort of US/China trade settlement remain high
A dovish performance from the Fed would also reassure those worried about global growth
Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currencys chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
Asian stocks were mostly higher on Monday as investors awaited trade developments between the US and China and looked forward to Wednesdays US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
The Fed isnt expected to alter any of its settings but forecast tweaks, to suggest a slower economy, and fewer interest rate increases are expected, along with an end of current operation to unwind the vast balance sheet built up in the post-crisis phase.
On the trade front, a South China Morning Post report suggested that progress has been made between Washington and Beijing, with ‘concrete progress’ made on the text of a possible trade agreement.
While investors mulled all this, the Nikkei 225 added 0.6%, with Shanghai‘s mainboard up 1.3% having erased earlier falls. The Hang Seng gained 0.8% and the ASX200 0.2%. Only Seoul’s Kospi was lower, and that by only 0.1%.
The US Dollar inched lower against major traded rivals as investors mulled the possibility of a more dovish Fed -although in truth that possibility has been with us for some time. The UK Pound stayed up on growing suspicions that Brexit will be delayed at least beyond the supposed hard date of March 29.
Still, GBP/USD seems stalled for now below resistance at late Februarys peaks in the $1.3350 region.
The pair has managed to get above these on an intraday basis in the last week, but it will need to do so on a daily or weekly close this week to avoid the possibility of a ‘lower low’ formation.
Crude oil prices were lower as worries about global growth weighed on demand prognoses, although the prospect of more output cuts kept the market underpinned. Gold prices were modestly lower as risk appetite broadly held up.
Mondays remaining economic schedule is extremely light the world over, with only the National Association of Home Builders March US housing market index likely to grab much market attention.
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, boosted by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth in Japan, raising hopes for a BoJ rate hike. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair found support from higher US Treasury yields, though gains may be capped by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
The aftermath of the Japanese yen's strengthening has manifested in significant dips across multiple markets, including equities, commodities, and various currencies. The yen has erased all its 2024 losses against the dollar, moving towards the 145.00 mark. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since March, hovering above the $103 mark.
Fed officials have indicated they are prepared to cut interest rates if necessary, though there is no immediate need. This dovish stance has been viewed positively by the markets, leading to increased buying pressure on gold. Despite ongoing inflationary risks, market expectations of a rate cut in June have risen to 66.3% (up 3% since the PCE release). Lower interest rates could enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold.
The U.S. Conference Board reported a slight decline in the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2024, dropping to 100.4 from 101.3 in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) opted to keep its key short-term interest rate steady at 0.10% for June 2024, in line with market expectations. At its June 2024 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50%. In June 2024, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the interest rate at 5.25% unchanged. This decision...