AUDUSD Weakness on RBA Decision Could Bolster ASX 200

ASX 200 Outlook Talking Points:

ASX 200 Outlook谈话要点：

• A rate decision out of the RBA could drive AUDUSD lower while propelling the ASX 200 out of its recent range

  退出RBA的利率决定可能会推动澳元兑美元升值在推动ASX 200超出最近范围的同时降低

• NZDUSD and the NZX can provide some insight into what potential reactions may look like

  NZDUSD和NZX可以提供一些潜在反应的见解

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ASX 200 Outlook: AUDUSD Weakness on RBA Decision Could Bolster ASX 200

ASX 200展望：澳大利亚央行决定的澳元兑美元疲软可能支撑ASX 200

A beleaguered NZDUSD pair could be a sign of things to come for the Australian Dollar if the Reserve Bank of Australia announces a monetary policy outlook similar to that of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Last weeks RBNZ rate announcement saw the bank stand firm on their current 1.75% official cash rate but issue a warning that the next move will likely be lower. Subsequently, the New Zealand Dollar faltered against its counterparts and the corresponding equity market – the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) – traded higher.

陷入困境的新西兰证券交易所可能是一个迹象如果澳大利亚储备银行宣布的货币政策前景与新西兰储备银行类似，那么澳大利亚元将会发生。上周新西兰央行利率公布后，该银行坚持其目前的1.75％官方现金利率，但发出警告称下一步行动可能会走低。随后，新西兰元兑其对手和相应的股票市场 - 新西兰证券交易所（NZX）走低 - 交易走高。

At the RBAs previous policy meeting, officials suggested that no hike should be expected at the meeting on April 2. All things considered, a strong case for continued accommodative policy can be made. Such a case could lead RBA officials to follow in the footsteps of their New Zealand counterpart and conduct a dovish about-face.

在罗马三机构此前的政策会议上，官员们建议不要在4月2日的会议上加息。考虑到所有因素，可以为持续的宽松政策提供强有力的理由。这样的案件可能会导致澳大利亚央行官员跟随他们的新西兰同行的脚步，并进行温和的约会。

AUDUSD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2018 – April 2019) (Chart 1)

澳元兑美元价格走势图：每日时间表（2018年1月 - 4月） 2019年）（图1）

AUDUSD overlaid with NZDUSD in orange and AUDNZD in red

AUDUSD overlad，新西兰元兑换为橙色，澳元兑换为红色

With a noteworthy correlation between AUDUSD and NZDUSD, traders may have been given a taste of what such a dovish outcome would mean for the Australian Dollar in the current landscape. The RBNZs announcement pressured NZDUSD considerably as the pair traded nearly 1.45% lower after the decision.

由于澳元兑美元与纽元兑美元之间存在值得注意的相关性，交易者可能已经体会到这种温和的结果对澳元的意义在当前的景观。新西兰联储的公告对新西兰元兑美元造成了相当大的压力，因为该决定后该货币对下跌近1.45％。

NZX 50 Price Chart: 1 – Hour Time Frame (March 10 – April 1) (Chart 2)

NZX 50价格走势图：1 - 小时时间框架（3月10日 - 4月1日）（图表） 2）

NZX price chart overlaid with NZDUSD in red

NZX价格图表以红色覆盖NZDUSD

On the other hand, the New Zealand stock exchange gapped higher on the announcement and climbed considerably in the following days. The ASX 200 could be destined for a similar reaction as investors weigh the benefits of cheaper borrowing on businesses and a weaker currency brightens the outlook for exports.

另一方面，新西兰股票交易在公告中跳空高开，并在接下来的日子大幅攀升。 ASX 200可能注定会有类似的反应，因为投资者会权衡较低的借贷对企业的好处，而较弱的货币则会增加出口前景。

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ASX 200 Price Chart: 1 – Hour Time Frame (March 2019 – April 2019) (Chart 3)

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ASX price chart with AUDUSD overlaid in red

ASX价格图表，澳元兑美元红色覆盖红色

With that said, the index has multiple noteworthy price levels going into the meeting. On the lower side, 6,205 chould offer some support as it has provided minor resistance in the past. Slightly lower is the 78.6 Fib level at 6,170 which has contributed to indecision in prior sessions.

据说，该指数有多个值得注意的价格水平进入会议。在较低的一侧，6,205 chould提供一些支撑，因为它在过去提供了一些小阻力。略低于78.6斐波拉契水平位6,170，这导致前几交易日的优柔寡断。

To the topside, 6,265 looks to be an area of important resistance – the highest the index has traded in seven months. A concerted effort higher could help the index break its recent range between 6,100 and 6,265.

在上行方面，6,265看起来是一个重要阻力区域 - 指数最高在七个月内交易。较高的协同努力可能有助于该指数突破其最近的区间在6,100和6,265之间。

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

- 由DailyFX.com的初级分析师Peter Hanks撰写

Read more: S&P 500 Outlook: Dark Clouds Forming Over US Markets

阅读更多：标准普尔500指数展望：在美国市场形成的乌云

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