Chancellor’s Resignation Led to Great Volatility of GBP

On Thursday, British Chancellor Sajid Javid suddenly resigned from the post that he was appointed to only 6 months ago. More importantly, the British government has scheduled to release its first budget plan after Brexit in March and the Chancellor’s resignation at such a crucial moment seems to imply severe conflicts within the Downing Street.

Mr. Javid is greatly at odds with Dominic Cummings, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Chief Special Advisor, over the government’s spending. Javid has been more discreet over fiscal policies, and if his successor chooses expanding fiscal policies as the market has expected, there will be a much lower chance for the Bank of England to cut interest rate.

BoE’s outgoing governor Mark Carney also mentioned after January’s monetary policy meeting that future monetary policies will also take into account the impact of the new budget. Judging from market’s reaction, it’s expected that BoE won’t cut interest rate before the end of 2021.

Currently, Mr. Johnson has appointed the former Financial Secretary Rishi Sunak, who had worked in Goldman Sachs and many other hedge funds, as the new Chancellor. The pound jumped nearly a hundred basis points upon the announcement of Mr. Javid’s resignation.

GBP daily pivot points 1.3006-1.3032

S1: 1.2969 R1: 1.3095

S2: 1.2883 R2: 1.3150