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Sommario:Market Review | August 8, 2024
GOLD - The GOLD market has stagnated at 2401.779 and 2365.443—supported by market expectations on rate cuts from several central banks. The expected surge of growth for GOLD due to conflicts in the Middle East has stagnated due to delays in the attack and Putins call to Iran to show restraint. However, diplomatic attempts seem to have no more effects on them. We continue to see this market as bullish.
SILVER -The SILVER market has stagnated at 26.494. We expect the market to rise soon, but we advise reacting to price movements based on your systems. If we were to analyze this market with only the technical chart, we expect the price to drop further after falling through the said structure.
DXY -The Dollar has maintained its rising momentum from Monday—showing a readjustment in price positions. With that said, we expect prices to stagnate more at current levels around 103.128 before a drop happens. It is very possible that this rise and consolidation may continue until the September FED meeting announces rates. The rise and strength may also come from rising yields, which currently sit at 3.92% from 3.69%.
GBPUSD - Alongside the slowdown caused by rising riots in the UK, the Pound continues to lose out against the dollar. We can see the price approaching the middle point of the range at 1.26480. When the price approaches said level, we expect the pound to lose more against the dollar and show weakness against other pairs.
AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar has run toward 0.65618 but has stagnated at 0.65250. We expect further bullish runs to come into this market, or we may see it stagnate below 0.65869 until rate cuts are implemented as central banks from both economies in this chart are expected to exact monetary easing.
NZDUSD -The Kiwi has risen considerably, gaining most of its losses from the start of the quarter. However, we continue to expect the Kiwi to showcase its weakness soon. In the near term, we expect further strength to come into the market—surged by better-than-expected employment data.
EURUSD -Euro strength stagnates after an overwhelming rise from Mondays open. Currently, the price settles near 1.08950, but we may see some action come into this market soon as investors weigh the impact of an Iran attack on Israel in the region. We continue to wait for further price action to come into markets before calling any movements.
USDJPY -The dollar has recovered slightly against the yen, coming back to the 146.405 support. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida eased market concerns by emphasizing that the Bank of Japans interest rate path could change if market volatility affects their economic forecasts, risk assessments, and projections. He stated that Japan is not in a situation where they need to hike rates at a set pace and that they will avoid rate hikes during unstable market conditions. Uchida believes the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing and sees no significant changes in the economic fundamentals of Japan and the U.S., suggesting that market reactions to single U.S. data points are exaggerated.
He highlighted the extreme volatility in recent market moves and stressed the importance of monitoring their impact on the economy and prices with vigilance. Uchida also mentioned that there is no difference in views between himself and BOJ Governor Ueda and that the BOJ has the flexibility to choose when to hike rates in a moderate environment.
However, we personally continue to see a massive rise in Yen demand. Although this may depend on how the BOJ will control future rate hikes since theyve announced that they are to take a more careful stance when hiking rates to allow for the economy to adjust.
USDCHF - The CHF has lost against the dollar, and the bank is expected to cut rates further to prevent hurting exporters. With that said, we continue to see more strength coming into the currency despite two rate cuts implemented this year. We see the price under 0.87041, and with technical analysis, we expect prices to fall further and the CHF strength to come into the market.
USDCAD -The CAD has currently run down toward 1.17261, and as we expected, the CAD strength has come into the market.
“That volatility we saw in stocks on Monday when Canada was effectively out, probably was the low point for the Canadian dollar,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
“The market is extremely short Canadian dollars ... that should be a bit of a warning light on the dashboard that the CAD sell-off has possibly gone a bit too far.”
Speculators have raised their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to an all-time high, recent data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. (1090741NNET)
With this move in the market, the daily chart has shown a continuation of the consolidation.
Disclaimer:
Le opinioni di questo articolo rappresentano solo le opinioni personali dell’autore e non costituiscono consulenza in materia di investimenti per questa piattaforma. La piattaforma non garantisce l’accuratezza, la completezza e la tempestività delle informazioni relative all’articolo, né è responsabile delle perdite causate dall’uso o dall’affidamento delle informazioni relative all’articolo.
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