AUD’s Trend Is Affected by Macro Economy

Latest statistics show Australia‘s annualized CPI from Q4, 2019 to be 1.8%, lower than the central bank’s 2%-3% long term target range, which the inflation fails to reach ever since 2017.

A worrying fact is that, like the core inflation elsewhere around the globe, Australia‘s average inflation excluding items facing price volatility remains at 1.6%, and has been hovering at that level for 5 quarters, which may explain why the Australian dollar’s response to the data was lower than expected.

Moreover, the beginning of 2020 has been an awful start for the overall economy. The raging epidemic of novel coronavirus has been a hard blow on Australian dollar which is linked to economic growth. Amid a wave of risk aversion, the market is worrying about possible impact of the coronavirus epidemic on tourism and economy of the Asia Pacific region.

Global economy remains nearly stagnant in an international context full of uncertainties, while global central banks still lack efficient financial stimulus. Even if the Reserve Bank of Australian decides not to cut interest rate next month, the AUD will be hard to climb against all these adversaries. The daily average chart suggests AUD/USD has fallen to the lowest point since the end of 2019.

AUD/USD daily pivot points: 0.6754---0.6756

S1: 0.6733 R1: 0.6775

S2: 0.6713 R2: 0.6797